On September 9–10, XRP saw a failed breakout above $3.00, stalling near $3.02–$3.04 after a push to $3.035. Heavy institutional selling and a high-volume liquidation at 14:00 erased early gains and left the token consolidating around $2.94–$2.96 into the session close.
Why this matters: the rejection reinforces a near-term ceiling that has repeatedly capped XRP’s rallies. Traders are parsing three cross-currents: the Federal Reserve’s likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut on September 17 (a potential liquidity tailwind), pending SEC decisions on multiple spot XRP ETF applications in October, and rising exchange custody balances that could translate into distribution pressure despite recent whale accumulation.
Analysts note similarities to July’s failed breakout, where early rejections led to a prolonged consolidation.
Price action and technical read: XRP traded in a tight intraday band (about 2.9%), with a spike to $3.035 followed by a sell-off that dropped the price to $2.956 on roughly 165.7 million in volume — nearly three times the daily average. Key resistance sits at $3.02–$3.04, while the $2.94 zone acted as immediate support. Momentum indicators show early bullish divergence on the RSI, but rising exchange reserves reduce the odds of a clean breakout unless buying volume returns.
Scenario view: In a bull scenario, XRP secures a weekly close above $3.02 with volume pickup, drawing in ETF-related flows and pushing price toward prior highs as institutional buyers reduce exchange balances. In a bear scenario, sustained exchange inflows trigger distribution that drags XRP back toward the $2.60–$2.70 range, re-testing wider support and increasing volatility. Traders who trade the breakout should watch volume confirmation and on-chain transfer patterns to exchanges.
What traders are watching next: whether XRP can hold daily closes above $2.95 to rebuild buying pressure; whether exchange inflows convert into sustained selling; the SEC’s October ETF rulings for institutional adoption signals; and how the Fed’s rate path affects dollar liquidity and risk appetite. Whale activity — about 340 million tokens accumulated recently — will also be monitored for signs of continued accumulation versus distribution.
Risk note: This is market commentary, not investment advice. High exchange balances and rapid, institution-driven volume swings increase short-term volatility; traders should manage position size and use stop-losses.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.