Bitcoin traded around $114,200 in Asian hours on Thursday, gaining about 2.4% over 24 hours, as major tokens firmed ahead of a heavy U.S. macro calendar. Ether rose to roughly $4,400, XRP moved above $3, BNB approached $900, Solana climbed nearly 3%, and Dogecoin outperformed with a 5% daily gain, bringing its one-week advance to about 15.9%.
Traders are watching a valuation signal from CF Benchmarks that maps bitcoin’s price to U.S. M2 money-supply growth. The firm says BTC is currently trading below its historical fair value range versus M2 — a divergence as wide as any since August 2024. Similar gaps in 2016, 2019 and 2021 preceded substantial rallies, suggesting liquidity-driven upside could follow if historical patterns reassert.
Why this matters: Over the last decade bitcoin has tended to correlate positively with M2, with monetary expansion often leading price moves by roughly three months. That timing implies potential liquidity tailwinds into late Q4 could support higher prices. Still, technical and risk cues remain mixed: analysts point to resistance near $115,000 (just above the 50-day moving average) as a key test, while options desks report increased demand for downside protection ahead of U.S. CPI data.
Solana’s momentum has been supported by on-chain strength — total value locked on the network hit a record $12.2 billion, up 57% since June — which underpins bullish $300 targets some analysts discuss. Memecoins also attracted fresh flows, with DOGE leading short-term momentum; however, these flows tend to be sensitivity-dependent and can reverse quickly if macro sentiment turns.
Market risks: The immediate outlook hinges on U.S. inflation prints and Fed policy expectations. A cooler CPI could increase the odds of an earlier easing cycle and weaken the dollar, typically supportive for crypto. Conversely, hotter-than-expected inflation would likely spur volatility and push traders toward protection, weighing on risk assets including bitcoin.
Read the original coverage for full details: Source: CoinDesk.