Market snapshot: As investors awaited the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, implied-volatility indicators signaled modest near-term swings for major coins but larger moves for XRP and Solana. Volmex’s one-day annualized implied volatility for bitcoin was 43.80, implying a roughly 2.29% expected 24‑hour move. Ether, XRP and SOL showed one‑day expected swings near 3.7%, 4% and 4.86%, respectively.
Put simply: stronger-than-expected jobs data could raise the odds of delayed Fed easing, pressuring risk assets and amplifying those implied moves. Traders are positioning ahead of the print, buying downside protection in some markets and trimming exposure in others.
Derivatives positioning
Open interest trends point to mixed conviction. Ether open interest in USDT and dollar-denominated perpetuals fell to about 1.93 million ETH, a four‑week low, calling into question whether ETH’s near 18% four‑week gain is broadly supported by leverage. Across the top 10 tokens, most perpetual OI dropped except for LINK and BTC. Solana perpetuals slipped below 11 million SOL, threatening the integrity of a recent uptrend.
On the CME, BTC futures volumes remain muted but options activity has picked up: total BTC options open interest rose to 47.23K BTC (roughly $5.21 billion notional), the highest since April/November respectively. Dealers note increased purchases of cheap out‑of‑the‑money puts as a hedge against a potentially hotter NFP print. Ether OI on the CME also dipped below 2 million ETH, while the three‑month annualized futures premium moved from about 5% to 7%.
Deribit flows show BTC puts trading at a premium to calls across tenors, and seven‑day volatility risk premium has retraced near zero — suggesting short-dated implied volatility is close to realized moves and that traders expect limited extra cost to hedge immediate shocks.
Token landscape
Memecoins briefly recaptured attention with projects like MemeCore (native token M) rallying 261% in a week amid a $5.7 million MemeX liquidity festival. But legacy meme projects such as TRUMP and MELANIA remain deeply lower, underscoring the sector’s volatility and speculative nature.
Risk note: This is market commentary, not investment advice. Options and futures signals reflect sentiment and hedging activity but can reverse quickly around major macro prints — manage position sizing and risk accordingly.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.