Bitcoin briefly topped $116,000 overnight before pulling back to $115,064.79, as the Dollar Index (DXY) held steady even with markets pricing an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Despite the modest retreat, market participants and analysts remain broadly bullish, forecasting fresh lifetime highs for BTC and significant upside for select smaller tokens including HYPE, SOL and ENA.
Attention has shifted toward small-cap names after a flurry of weekly gains: MYX, HASH, PENGU, PUMP and MNT have each rallied more than 10% this week. That rotation into higher-risk tokens comes alongside rising derivatives activity, suggesting traders are increasingly willing to take on leverage ahead of potential macro catalysts.
Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, summarized the macro setup as a classic “good news/bad data” trade: higher inflation prints paired with softer labor numbers preserve the easing narrative, which can be a near-term positive for crypto risk assets.
Derivatives positioning
Open interest in futures tied to the top 10 cryptocurrencies rose roughly 3%–5% in the past 24 hours, reflecting growing risk appetite. Annualized perpetual funding rates for major coins remain elevated — around 10% — signaling a bullish bias, though not yet at extremes that typically precede sharp reversals.
PENGU, a standout performer this week, saw record open interest of 7.78 billion coins with funding near 15%, validating speculative positioning. By contrast, smaller names like SKY and PYTH exhibit deeply negative funding rates, indicating a stronger bias toward shorts on those projects.
CME bitcoin futures show a renewed uptick in open interest after weeks of decline, while ether futures OI has fallen to about 1.78 million ETH. Options open interest for both BTC and ETH sits at multimonth highs, even as Deribit order books show a put-biased skew into the December expiry — traders are still pricing multiple U.S. rate cuts by next summer.
Security spotlight: Thorchain deepfake hack
Security risks remain prominent: one of Thorchain’s founders had funds stolen after being tricked by a deepfake Zoom call. PeckShield reported roughly $1.2 million taken from a user, and RUNE trades near $1.28, down ~14% over the past month and more than 90% from its March 2024 peak. The incident underscores that social-engineering attacks continue to be a major vulnerability across wallets and protocols.
Risk note: market signals point to higher conviction among traders, but elevated funding rates, concentrated open interest in small caps, and ongoing security threats increase volatility and downside risk. Investors should size positions carefully and prioritize custody and account security.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.