Bitcoin is showing compressed volatility and sustained sideways price action as traders await fresh macro data. The market’s so‑called choppiness — a measure of rangebound trading — has climbed recently, reinforcing the view that BTC may linger in consolidation before a meaningful breakout.
Over the past few months bitcoin has oscillated between roughly $110,000 and its all‑time high near $124,000, currently trading around $113,000. On the one‑month horizon the choppiness index sits at 54, a level last exceeded in early November 2024, when the index hit 64 just before a major move. That earlier spike preceded a surge that pushed bitcoin above $90,000; the index also topped 57 at the start of the current bull cycle in early 2023.
Meanwhile, implied volatility measures remain at multi‑year lows, a sign that options markets are pricing in limited near‑term movement. Low implied volatility typically coincides with periods of consolidation, and when volatility does re‑accelerate the resulting move can be sharp. With volatility compressed, the path of least resistance may be continued sideways trading until a clear catalyst arrives.
The next obvious catalyst is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, scheduled for 12:30 PM UTC. CPI prints that materially beat or miss expectations can prompt rapid adjustments in Fed rate expectations — and that, in turn, could trigger a volatility breakout or a directional move in bitcoin.
What traders should watch: the CPI result and immediate market reaction, options‑implied volatility shifts, and whether BTC breaks the $110,000 support or clears $124,000 resistance on volume. A move accompanied by rising implied volatility would increase the odds of a sustained trend.
Risk note: low implied volatility does not indicate direction, only the likelihood of movement. Market events can be fast and unpredictable; use position sizing and risk controls if trading around macro data.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.
