Traders are bracing for Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, with bitcoin climbing after strong ETF inflows and markets pricing in Fed rate cuts. BTC traded near $114,000, up about 1.4% over 24 hours, as spot bitcoin and ether ETFs drew a combined $928 million in net inflows yesterday. The immediate question: will the CPI reinforce expectations for a September rate cut and extend the crypto rally?
Market snapshot
Bitcoin and ether led gains as institutional flows accelerated. BTC hovered around $114k while ETH traded above $4,400. Spot BTC ETFs reported daily net flows of about $741.5 million, bringing cumulative spot-BTC ETF inflows to roughly $55.6 billion. Ether spot ETFs added ~$171.5 million for the day with cumulative inflows near $12.86 billion. Options and derivatives activity shows elevated engagement, with BTC and ETH options open interest rising notably.
Macro backdrop
Economists expect a modest CPI print—around 0.3% month-over-month and roughly 2.9–3.1% year-over-year depending on core measures. Market gauges reflect heavy odds of a 25 basis-point Fed cut this month (CME FedWatch ~92%; Polymarket ~79%), and a smaller but rising chance of a 50 bps move. Ahead of the U.S. data, the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep rates steady.
Token flows, unlocks and industry moves
Activity isn’t limited to BTC and ETH. Mantle (MNT) surged to record highs as staking incentives and concentrated exchange liquidity lifted demand. Aptos (APT) has a significant unlock scheduled (~2.2% of circulating supply). Blockchain lender Figure priced an IPO and began trading under ticker FIGR, while a Gemini-listed firm is set to debut soon. Stablecoin supply on Ethereum jumped by roughly $14 billion in August, underscoring continued real-world demand.
Geopolitical tensions in Europe — including recent airspace incursions near Poland — add another layer of uncertainty for risk assets.
Technicals & risk considerations
Derivatives metrics are mixed: global futures open interest remains elevated near record highs while CME bitcoin futures OI is subdued. Options OI for BTC and ETH has climbed, and risk reversals show some bias toward puts, signaling protective positioning. Equity futures show a rising-wedge pattern — a bearish formation that could trigger broader risk-off flows and pressure crypto. Investors should note the potential for quick reversals; macro surprises or geopolitical noise could rapidly change sentiment.
Bottom line: The CPI read is the likely catalyst for the next major move. If inflation cools, rate-cut expectations could further support risk assets; a surprise upside would probably prompt caution. Position sizing and hedges remain important.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.