Bitcoin has cooled off recently, and analysts point to the tech-heavy Nasdaq as a key drag. With equities in a mean-reversion phase, Bitcoin may be more exposed to deeper pullbacks unless macro conditions shift.
Crypto research firm Ecoinometrics argues Bitcoin “faces a headwind from equities,” noting that when the Nasdaq 100 delivers below-average 12‑month returns, Bitcoin typically lags and is at greater risk of larger drawdowns. The idea is rooted in mean reversion — the tendency of prices to drift back toward historical averages after extreme moves.
Historical episodes support this linkage: the tariffs-driven pullback in April 2025 and the lows of August 2024 and November 2022 all show the Nasdaq stabilizing first, with Bitcoin following later. That pattern suggests BTC could underperform while the index digests its gains.
But the relationship is not static. On-chain data provider CryptoQuant reports the 30‑day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has fallen close to zero. When the two decoupled in July 2025, Bitcoin jumped roughly 18% and went on to set new highs by August — a reminder that short-term breaks in correlation can precede strong rallies.
Some market participants view the decoupling as constructive. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, calls it a sign of Bitcoin’s maturation as an independent asset class. He also argues that persistent U.S. labor weakness and slowing growth could make Bitcoin more attractive as an alternative hedge against fiat dilution.
Macro policy could be the immediate trigger for a renewed risk-on move. Markets currently price a high probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve cut on September 17 (per CME FedWatch), and poll-like odds on prediction market Myriad put the chance near 78%. The simultaneous expiry of VIX-linked futures on the same day could amplify volatility and create a sharp directional move.
Meanwhile, institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs suggest professional money is rotating into position ahead of any rally — a development that could amplify upside if macro sentiment turns. Still, investors should remember that correlations can revert, and volatility remains elevated.
Bottom line: Bitcoin’s near-term path appears tied to traditional markets and macro policy. A Fed cut or renewed institutional demand could propel BTC higher, but the current Nasdaq mean-reversion raises the risk of deeper drawdowns. Manage sizing and risk accordingly.
Source: Decrypt. Read the original coverage for full details.
