Bitcoin opened September under pressure, reviving a familiar seasonal pattern: the token has finished the month lower in nine of the past 14 Septembers, with an average monthly loss near 12%. This year BTC traded near $110,000, its weakest level in almost two months, as total crypto market capitalization slipped to about $3.74 trillion.
Market participants point to a mix of forces that raise the odds of further downside: fragile sentiment, waning trading volumes and persistent macro uncertainty. On the technical side, analysts flagged Bitcoin’s failure to hold $112,000 and say the next downside target is roughly $105,000, followed psychologically by the round number at $100,000. The crypto fear gauge has dipped toward 40, its lowest since April, signaling rising nervousness among traders.
Altcoins showed a split picture: Solana led major gainers (about 4%), while XRP and Cardano (ADA) posted modest upticks. That dispersion — some tokens attracting flows while Bitcoin stalls — can reflect capital rotation rather than net new money entering the market.
ETF flows underline that dynamic. After steady accumulation in August, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of roughly $440 million last week. By contrast, recently launched Ether ETFs logged over $1 billion in inflows, offering a rare bright spot. CryptoQuant data also shows spot ETFs have absorbed more than 1.3 million BTC — nearly 6% of total supply — putting them on par with the largest exchanges in market-share terms.
Macro events could change the picture: U.S. non-farm payrolls due Friday are expected to show about 45,000 new jobs. A softer print would strengthen bets for a September rate cut, a potential catalyst for risk-on flows. Until then, traders are paying up for downside protection: options skew is tilted bearish and demand for puts has strengthened.
What traders should watch: whether spot ETF outflows continue, if BTC reclaims and holds $112K, and Friday’s jobs report. Risk-management remains critical — many are using hedges or trimming exposure rather than adding risk amid seasonal weakness. This is market commentary and not investment advice.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.