Traders are bracing for a potentially turbulent week for crypto markets as several major U.S. economic reports land back-to-back while derivatives expiries add extra uncertainty. After a quiet Monday, attention shifts to Tuesday’s Nonfarm Payroll revisions, Wednesday’s Producer Price Index and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index — data that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
At the center of concern: the Fed meets on September 17, the same day futures tied to Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — expire. That overlap can amplify moves in risk assets because hedges and speculative positions tied to VIX futures are being cleared just as the Fed issues forward guidance. Market observers say that combination raises the odds of sharp directional swings.
Labor-market revisions are also in focus. Forecasts for the Nonfarm Payroll revisions range widely — between -450,000 and -950,000 — suggesting the jobs picture remains soft. If inflation readings surprise on the upside, traders may quickly reprice interest-rate expectations and reduce exposure to riskier assets, including crypto.
On-chain and derivatives signals show differing momentum between the two largest tokens. Ethereum has seen stronger spot demand and a recent uptick in derivatives interest: Coinalyze data points to a roughly $438 million overnight increase in open interest to $24.3 billion. Bitcoin open interest rose by about $450 million to $30.41 billion, though trading flows for BTC showed no decisive buyer- or seller-side bias.
What this means for traders: rising open interest alongside steady spot volume can signal conviction, but the macro calendar — especially inflation prints and a simultaneous VIX expiry and Fed decision — creates a setup where volatility could spike suddenly. Experienced desks are watching positioning closely and may adjust hedges ahead of these events.
Risk awareness: This analysis is not investment advice. Crypto markets are highly sensitive to macro surprises and derivatives expiries; positions can move rapidly and capital at risk should be sized accordingly.
Source: Decrypt. Read the original coverage for full details.