The bitcoin bull run has shown signs of fatigue, with ongoing selling by long-term holders and cooling ETF inflows. Price recently printed around $108,783.53, and another market variable — the MOVE index — is flashing a potential warning for bulls.
The MOVE index, created by Harley Bassman, measures expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market by taking a weighted average of option prices on one‑month Treasury options across the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities. In plain terms, it aggregates traders’ expectations for near‑term moves in interest rates and bond prices.
Over three days the index jumped from 77 to 89, the sharpest three‑day rise since early April when tariff shocks rattled markets and bitcoin fell toward $75,000. Technical momentum indicators — including a bullish MACD on the MOVE — suggest the index could extend gains, which historically precede tighter liquidity conditions.
Why that matters for bitcoin: U.S. Treasuries are treated as high‑quality liquid assets and sit at the heart of global collateral and funding markets. Spikes in expected Treasury volatility tend to push lenders and intermediaries to demand higher risk premiums, shorten duration risk and hoard liquidity. The knock‑on effects often include wider credit spreads, higher borrowing costs and a pullback from risk assets like bitcoin.
When bond market volatility ramps up, investors commonly rotate from longer‑dated notes into short‑term bills — a classic flight to quality that reduces available collateral and can amplify price pressure in more speculative markets.
What traders should watch
MOVE momentum: Whether the index keeps rising and if momentum indicators confirm the move.
Treasury yields and curve: Rapid shifts or steepening/flattening that signal funding stress.
ETF flows & long‑holder activity: Continued net outflows from bitcoin ETFs or sustained selling by long‑term wallets would increase downside risk.
Options skew & funding rates: Widening skew or elevated funding/futures basis can indicate reduced risk appetite and higher liquidation risk.
Risk reminder: macro shocks and bond volatility can trigger fast market moves. This analysis is informational and not investment advice — traders should manage position size and use risk controls.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.