A weak U.S. jobs report on Friday failed to spark the rally many traders had expected in bitcoin, leaving the leading cryptocurrency below key resistance near $112,000 and raising the risk of a deeper pullback.
The August nonfarm payrolls release showed just 22,000 jobs added — far below the roughly 75,000 many had forecast — and included downward revisions to prior months. Those revisions pushed markets to price in a near‑certain Fed rate cut at the September meeting and initially drove Treasury yields lower, but bitcoin (BTC) did not sustain its upside move.
From a technical perspective, the outlook has turned cautious. BTC briefly climbed above $113,300 but slid back under the double‑top neckline near $111,982, failing to confirm a breakout. Crossing below the Ichimoku cloud and remaining under that neckline validates a classic double‑top reversal pattern, which often precedes larger declines. The first major support sits close to the 200‑day simple moving average (SMA) around $101,700; a decisive break below that level would increase downside risk substantially.
Macro flows could add volatility. While expectations for Fed cuts tend to push yields down — usually a positive for risk assets — history shows yields can fall short term and then rebound, tightening financial conditions later. That dynamic makes it possible for yields to spike even after a cut, which would be negative for BTC and other risk assets.
Key upcoming data will shape the next move. Traders should watch the August CPI print next week and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual benchmark revisions, both of which could alter the inflation and jobs narratives. Market reactions in the 10‑year Treasury and whether BTC can reclaim the $112k area will be the immediate signals to monitor.
What this means for traders and investors: remain cautious and emphasise risk management. The technical setup favors bears until bitcoin reclaims the neckline and holds above the 200‑day SMA. Position sizing, stop placement and time horizons should reflect elevated macro and technical uncertainty; the situation is not a straightforward buy-on-news trade.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.
