Bitcoin appears to have already put in its September low, according to historical intramonth patterns. Prices touched around $107,000 on Sept. 1, while recent prints have been trading near $114,931.33. The pattern — lows forming within the first ten days of the month — has been visible since July 2024.
Traders point to mechanical market forces that cluster at month boundaries. One plausible driver is institutional rebalancing and the timing of futures and options expiries, which often fall on month-ends or the first day of the following month. That can create short, sharp volatility and a lull as positions are rolled or reopened. Oliver Knight, deputy managing editor for data and tokens at CoinDesk, notes these expiries can produce temporary price pressure ahead of a rebound.
There are exceptions: February, June and August 2025 saw their lows later in the month, but even then, markets experienced an early 10-day correction before resuming the prevailing trend. That suggests the early-month low pattern is a useful rule of thumb rather than a strict law.
Looking ahead, Q4 has been historically favorable for bitcoin, delivering an average return of roughly 85% across measured years, with October particularly strong (only two losing Octobers since 2013). If the early-September trough holds, traders could see momentum build into the traditional Q4 window.
Short-term signals to watch include futures open interest and option skew around month boundaries; sudden drops can mark capitulation. Also keep an eye on the US Dollar Index and scheduled macro events (inflation prints, Fed commentaries), which often determine whether seasonal patterns persist.
Risk considerations: Historical patterns do not guarantee future results. Market catalysts — macro shocks, regulatory news, or liquidity shifts — can override seasonal tendencies. Investors should manage position sizing, use stop-losses where appropriate, and avoid treating calendar patterns as a substitute for fundamental and technical analysis.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.