Coinbase analysts remain constructive on crypto heading into Q4, arguing that a combination of ample liquidity, a benign macroeconomic backdrop and clearer regulatory signals could keep the market rally intact.
They point to continued tailwinds behind Bitcoin, which the report cited near $114,521.45, and say that macro conditions make it more likely BTC will outperform expectations unless an external shock—most plausibly to energy prices—forces a change in U.S. monetary policy.
On-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) is another structural support, the note said. Publicly disclosed DATs now hold over 1 million BTC (~$110 billion), 4.9 million ETH (~$21.3 billion) and 8.9 million SOL (~$1.8 billion) as of Sept. 10, creating a price floor that can absorb episodes of selling.
The report cautions that calendar effects and investor behavior still matter. Historically, BTC recorded six straight September declines from 2017–2022, a pattern that did not repeat in 2023 or 2024. Coinbase’s analysts note the small sample size and wide outcome dispersion make seasonal signals of limited reliability.
Market dynamics are also shifting. Coinbase describes a “player-versus-player” phase as late institutional entrants push further into altcoins and down the risk curve. That dynamic tends to favor large-cap tokens and may prompt consolidation among smaller DAT holders or late-stage allocators.
What this means for investors: Coinbase expects Q4 to remain well supported by liquidity, institutional treasury demand and a favorable macro setup, but risks persist. Seasonality remains noisy, DAT concentration can create idiosyncratic squeezes, and macro or geopolitical shocks could quickly alter the policy path and market sentiment. Investors should weigh these structural supports against concentration and liquidity risks before adjusting allocations.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.