Gold recently pierced an inflation-adjusted record, pushing analysts to ask whether Bitcoin can keep up — and whether that pairing could signal a major market shift heading into Q4.
The spot price of gold climbed to a high of $3,683.14/oz in U.S. dollars, edging past the January 21, 1980 nominal peak of $850/oz (which equals roughly $3,539.58 when adjusted to August 2025 dollars). Over the same period, BTC rose about 6%, moving from roughly $107,634 to around $114,408, though that still sits near 8% below last month’s intramonth high above $124,000.
Traders and analysts, including desks at Singapore-based QCP Capital, are watching the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio as a potential market thermometer. QCP flagged a historically significant level at 0.041 — a zone that in prior cycles coincided with strong gold rallies while Bitcoin stabilized. Today the ratio sits near 0.032, meaning either Bitcoin would need to fall or gold would need to climb further for the ratio to approach that key threshold.
Prediction markets reflect the shift in sentiment. Users on Myriad — a market-run platform owned by the same parent company as the original reporting outlet — now give gold a majority chance of outperforming BTC through year-end, with roughly 63% backing the precious metal.
QCP also notes other cross-asset gauges worth tracking: the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio as an indicator of risk‑off versus risk‑on positioning in traditional markets, and the BTC-to-ETH ratio to monitor rotation within crypto. Taken together, these ratios help contextualize where capital and risk appetite are flowing across both traditional and digital markets.
What this means for market participants: if Bitcoin can keep pace with or out-run gold’s advance, it could pave the way for a strong BTC breakout. If not, flows into traditional safe havens may dominate near-term price action.
Risk awareness: Cross-asset signals are informative but not predictive certainties. Markets remain volatile; this analysis is not financial advice. Investors should consider risk tolerance and perform their own due diligence before making trades.
Source: Decrypt. Read the original coverage for full details.
