CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index climbed to roughly 59/100, approaching the 60% mark that many traders treat as a signal the market’s focus is shifting toward smaller, more speculative tokens. The move came as bitcoin (BTC) bounced back above $112,000, while a number of altcoins posted double‑digit gains over 24 hours.
Notable risers included Story Protocol’s IP — which topped $10 after Heritage Distillery said it is refining a strategy to build IP reserves — and projects such as MNT and PUMP, which contributed to the index’s uptick. Market intelligence platforms point to a rotation of capital out of large caps and into higher‑beta tokens as the primary driver.
Traders are watching tomorrow’s U.S. inflation print closely. If inflation stays moderate, analysts say, risk assets could extend their rebound; if inflation surprises to the upside, a stronger dollar could quickly pressure BTC, ETH and altcoins alike. Bitunix highlighted short‑term support levels to watch: BTC $108,800 and ETH $4,250.
Derivatives flow suggests cautious optimism. Futures open interest for BTC has been steady in the past 24 hours as market participants await the CPI data. Open interest in ETH, SOL and HYPE rose by over 2%, while XRP, SUI, ADA and ENA saw capital outflows. Annualized funding rates for most top tokens (with the exception of TRX and XLM) are hovering at or above 10%, signaling a bullish tilt but no obvious leverage overheating.
On the institutional side, notional open interest in BTC options on the CME climbed to a record $5.6 billion, even as futures volumes stayed muted. On Deribit, puts out to December continue to trade at a premium to calls — a sign some participants remain hedged against downside — and an OTC desk reported a long position in an ether $4,000 put expiring Sept. 26.
Historically, altcoin seasons have coincided with periods of BTC consolidation: when bitcoin stalls, traders often redeploy capital into speculative tokens to chase returns without risking missing a major BTC breakout. BTC has been rangebound between roughly $107,000 and $113,000 for more than two weeks after failing to sustain a move past $124,000.
Why readers should care: the current rotation increases short‑term opportunities in select altcoins but also raises sensitivity to macro prints such as U.S. CPI. Investors should consider liquidity, position sizing and hedging, since derivatives positioning shows bullish interest without clear signs of excess leverage — yet tail risks remain if inflation overshoots.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.