Polymarket’s most active trader, known as JustWakingUp, has placed a $15,000 wager that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. The position is already up about 3%, and would pay roughly $226,000 if the larger cut materializes.
The bettor is notable: Polymarket Whales reports the account has nearly $400 million in lifetime trading volume and more than $2 million in profits, highlighting how decentralized prediction markets can concentrate big, directional macro bets.
That said, the broader market is pricing a smaller move. The CME’s FedWatch Tool assigns roughly 91% probability to a 25 basis point cut next week. Odds of a jumbo 50 bps cut have climbed to nearly 10% after a weaker-than-expected August jobs report and large downward revisions to last year’s payrolls.
Traders will watch this week’s U.S. Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index prints closely. Softer readings could increase pressure for more aggressive easing and lift risk assets, including bitcoin and equities.
Why it matters: Large, visible wagers on decentralized platforms show how crypto-native markets are becoming another venue for macro speculation. Shifts in rate-cut expectations can quickly ripple through crypto prices and institutional positioning.
Risk note: Market odds and macro data move fast. Macro bets and crypto exposures carry substantial risk and are not investment advice.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.