Bitcoin is trading in a narrow band around $111,000, a pattern that often precedes larger moves as markets await fresh economic data. With U.S. Core CPI due on Sept. 11 and the Federal Reserve’s decision on Sept. 17, traders are on edge for signals that could break weeks of compressed volatility.
Prediction markets are pricing in easing: Polymarket odds show an ~82% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the September meeting, leaving little probability for no change or a larger cut. October outlooks are split, a divergence that makes the current calm fragile — when traders disagree about the next steps, volatility tends to return.
Market participants point to a potential flow of cash into crypto if cuts materialize. As money-market yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding cash declines; market makers such as Enflux say that could redirect a portion of the roughly $7 trillion parked in short-term instruments toward risk assets including BTC and ETH.
“Periods of low volatility often end when macro catalysts arrive,” said Gracie Lin, CEO of OKX Singapore, noting that either an upside surprise in inflation or a dovish Fed statement could push prices decisively. If that happens, expect wider intraday ranges and renewed ETF and institutional activity.
Market snapshot: Bitcoin traded intraday between about $110,812 and $113,237, while Ether sat roughly between $4,279 and $4,379. Outside crypto, gold hit record highs amid rate-cut expectations, Japan’s Nikkei climbed modestly and the S&P 500 closed at fresh records.
ETF flows have been modest so far, leaving broader participation dependent on clearer macro signals.
Risk note: compressed volatility can lull traders into overconfidence. Market drivers such as CPI prints and Fed communication are unpredictable — prediction markets express probabilities, not guarantees. Anyone allocating capital should consider position sizing, stop management, and the possibility of rapid price moves.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.