The U.S. Labor Department’s preliminary benchmark revision cut payrolls by a staggering 911,000 jobs for the year ending March 2025, the largest downward adjustment on record. The change suggests the labor market was materially weaker than monthly Nonfarm Payrolls reports indicated.
That reassessment matters because central bankers and markets use those employment figures to judge inflation and the path for interest rates. Economists say the revised data increases the odds the Federal Reserve will move faster and further on easing; a 50 basis point cut is now more conceivable than the widely forecasted 25 basis point move at next week’s meeting.
Markets that are sensitive to rate expectations reacted quickly. Gold futures briefly climbed past $3,700, and spot gold hit a record before surrendering morning gains. Bitcoin also pulled back from the mid-$113,000 level to about $111,600, roughly 1% lower over 24 hours. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which flirted with sub-4% levels, rose to 4.07% as traders digested the surprise revision.
The episode reads like a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” moment: a string of speculative positioning ahead of anticipated policy moves met with rapid repositioning once fresh data landed. For crypto and other risk assets, the lesson is clear: macro surprises can quickly reverse short-term rallies.
Risk note: market-sensitive assets may remain volatile as investors reprice rate-cut expectations; this summary is informational and not financial advice.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.