Bitcoin traded largely flat over 24 hours as markets braced for Friday’s U.S. labor market report. The token recovered earlier losses and was hovering near $111,100, according to CoinGecko.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs are looking for a softer Nonfarm Payrolls print in August — roughly 60,000 jobs added versus a 75,000 consensus — and forecast the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, per reporting from TheStreet.
That backdrop has traders pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its Sept. 17 meeting, provided payrolls and wage data don’t surprise on the upside. Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, described the market’s expected print as “soft but steady,” saying momentum toward easing would likely continue unless jobs or wages accelerate unexpectedly.
Market scenarios are straightforward: a “Goldilocks” report — moderate job gains, steady unemployment and contained wages — should lift risk appetite and support both equities and crypto. A downside shock would probably trigger initial risk-off selling on growth concerns, followed by a rally if investors price in faster Fed easing. Conversely, a strong upside surprise could drive yields and the dollar higher, putting near-term pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin’s performance this year has closely tracked equities, making macroeconomic data a major driver of short-term price moves. Core inflation remains around 3.1%, and corporate headwinds showed in an August Challenger report that logged 85,979 job cuts — the most in a month since 2020.
Risk reminder: cryptocurrencies are volatile and sensitive to macro surprises. Short-term price reactions can be swift and amplified by leverage in derivatives markets. This coverage is informational and not investment advice.
What to watch: the headline payrolls number, the unemployment rate and wage growth — each could meaningfully shift expectations for Fed policy and, by extension, Bitcoin. Source: Decrypt. Read the original coverage for full details.