Bitcoin slipped 1.3% to just below $110,000 Thursday, but strong flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest buyers may still have the upper hand. Over two sessions BTC funds netted $633.3 million — the biggest two-day inflow since early August.
On-chain analyst JA_Maartun of CryptoQuant says the moves look like a major redistribution: long-term holder coins are being moved into ETF-managed addresses as funds create demand and older holders supply liquidity.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved by the SEC in January 2024, let investors gain BTC exposure without buying, storing, or securing coins themselves. That simplicity has driven inflows: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF alone now holds more than $83 billion in assets under management.
BTC funds recorded two consecutive days of inflows above $300 million, totaling $633.3 million. If those flows largely reflect longtime HODLers converting holdings into ETF shares, analysts say this redistribution is unusual — it has shown up in three separate periods across 2024–25 rather than the single-cycle pattern seen in prior years.
Seasonality and macro catalysts still matter. Historically, September has closed red in 8 of the past 12 years, though the last three years shifted the weakness into August. Analysts argue that continued ETF inflows could be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin avoids another “Red September.”
Institutional treasuries also influence supply. Japan’s Metaplanet recently added 1,009 BTC for roughly $112.2 million, bringing its holdings to exactly 20,000 BTC (about $2.2 billion at current prices). The company gained shareholder approval for an $884 million capital raise even as its stock has fallen roughly 60% since mid-June — a reminder that corporate buyers can both stabilize and shift market dynamics.
Market sentiment remains cautious: the prediction market Myriad shows 65% of users expect Bitcoin to fall to $105,000 before it reaches $125,000. A Binance Australia poll of 1,900 investors found only one in four expects BTC to top $150,000 within six months, though half said they intend to increase holdings.
Macro policy could change the picture quickly. Xapo Bank’s head of investment, Gadi Chait, points to the Federal Reserve’s September meeting (Sept. 16–17) as a key catalyst — a rate cut or easing liquidity conditions could lift risk assets and potentially boost Bitcoin by an estimated 5–10%.
Risk note: Crypto markets are volatile. ETF inflows, polls, and corporate buys are useful indicators but not guarantees. This is not financial advice—always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
Source: Decrypt. Read the original coverage for full details.