Bitcoin has ticked higher this week as derivatives traders position for potential gains in late September — but several market signals suggest investors are still hedging against a sudden downturn.
Over the past two days BTC rose about 3%, trading near $110,000, while cumulative volume deltas remained flat and passive bids grew deeper into the order book. In short, the move looks driven more by passive buying than aggressive demand.
Open interest on perpetual futures climbed roughly 2.35% to about $30 billion as traders rebalanced ahead of this week’s U.S. employment data. Historical seasonality also pressures investors: September has often been a weaker month for crypto, and many U.S. market participants are reassessing exposure before the end of the fiscal quarter on September 30.
The options market paints a cautiously optimistic picture. Research head Sean Dawson at on-chain options platform Dervie says traders have been building open interest for the September 26 expiry at the $120,000, $130,000 and $140,000 calls — a clear bullish tilt. But because market makers are net long gamma, price moves in either direction may be softened by dealers hedging: they sell into rallies and buy into drops, which can dampen volatility.
Implied volatility remains muted — the 30-day IV sits around 30% — reflecting the recent spell of contained price action. Still, demand for downside protection has spiked: the one-week 25-delta skew jumped from 6.75 to 12 overnight, signalling that traders are buying puts to guard against a sharp fall.
Looking ahead, the immediate catalyst is Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report and the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. A strong jobs print may simply limit the seasonal weakness rather than trigger a major rally. Conversely, if the market doesn’t see the 25 basis-point cut currently priced in for the next FOMC, September could become more difficult for risk assets.
Takeaway: Derivatives positioning shows bullish conviction for late September, but subdued volatility and rising demand for protection indicate investors are preparing for downside risk as much as upside opportunity. Risk management remains essential.
Source: Decrypt. Read the original coverage for full details.