August brought a clear rotation in institutional flows: U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded roughly $751 million in net outflows, while Ethereum spot funds quietly absorbed about $3.9 billion in new money.
That split is notable because it’s one of the first months since the ETF launches where Bitcoin funds lost ground while Ethereum products attracted sustained subscriptions. The divergence suggests institutions are rebalancing exposure away from BTC — which recently rallied to an all-time high — and toward ETH, which has shown steadier, month-to-month demand.
On-chain and market signals add context. Data from Glassnode show Bitcoin dipping below the cost basis of many 1- and 3-month holders, leaving short-term buyers underwater. A move under the six-month cost basis near $107,000 could accelerate pressure toward the long-term holder accumulation zone around $93,000–$95,000. Prediction markets echo the caution: Polymarket assigns roughly a 65% chance BTC revisits $100,000 before hitting $130,000, while the odds of reaching $150,000 by year-end sit near 24%.
Ethereum’s picture is different. ETH ETFs have recorded positive net subscriptions in 10 of the past 12 months, and August’s inflows helped push ETH roughly 25% higher over 30 days despite headline volatility. Traders on Polymarket also price strong near-term probabilities for ETH holding key levels into early September and higher odds of a year-end push above $5,000.
What this means for markets
The immediate takeaway is a potential institutional rotation: with Bitcoin’s ETF demand cooling, Ethereum’s steady subscriptions could act as a quiet ballast for crypto markets and reshape flows into year-end. For traders, that implies a few practical points: monitor ETF flows as a liquidity signal, watch BTC’s six-month cost basis and long-term holder clusters for support, and treat ETH inflows as a medium-term tailwind but not a guarantee of uninterrupted gains.
Risk awareness: ETF flows and on-chain indicators are useful signals but not certainties. Crypto markets remain volatile; past performance doesn’t predict future returns. Position sizing and risk management remain essential.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.