Bitcoin has shown renewed downside pressure after a 6.5% decline in August, breaking several technical supports and raising the risk of a move toward $100,000.
After a four-month winning streak the market cooled as U.S.-listed spot ETFs recorded outflows, with data provider SoSoValue reporting about $751 million in withdrawals. That selling pressure coincided with a breakdown under key chart levels and several commonly watched moving averages.
The recent slide pushed BTC below the Ichimoku cloud and under the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Price also pierced horizontal supports formed by the May high near $111,965 and the December high around $109,364 on the daily chart, signaling a shift from short-term strength to vulnerability.
Technical momentum indicators back the bearish read. The short-term EMA band of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) has crossed below the longer-term band, a classic sign of contracting buyer conviction. At the same time the weekly MACD histogram has moved below zero, suggesting the trend environment is tilting from bullish to bearish.
Targets, key levels and what would change the outlook
Given these signals, a sustained sell-off could test the 200-day SMA near $101,366, with $100,000 an important psychological level. Interim support to watch includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April–August rally at about $105,240. On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim the lower high at $113,510 — and ideally push past the Ichimoku floor near $110,756 and the 50-day SMA around $115,938 — to reverse the bearish bias.
Seasonal patterns add a cautionary note: historically September has tended to be weak for Bitcoin, with an average return of about -3.49% since 2013 and losses in eight of the past 12 Septembers, according to Coinglass.
Risk note: Technical setups increase the probability of specific outcomes but do not guarantee them. Market-moving catalysts — including renewed ETF inflows, macroeconomic surprises or on-chain developments — can quickly change momentum. Traders should manage position size and use protective risk controls.
Source: CoinDesk. Read the original coverage for full details.